AI buildout buoys imports

October 6, 2026

The US trade deficit surged 13.7% in August to $105.6 billion, the highest level since March 2025 when firms were stocking up prior to Liberation Day tariffs. Imports increased 4.3% during the month, more than enough to offset a 1.4% gain in exports. The trade deficit has expanded 19.9% year-over-year in spite of a higher effective tariff rate. 

Other changes include the trade disputes with Canada, as well as the change on July 24 shifting tariffs from Section 122 to Section 301; those cover most imports at a range of 10% to 12.5%. On July 31, 100% tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals took effect. The change only affected large enterprises (smaller companies were granted a delay); generics are exempted. 

The headline change in the deficit does not account for currency shifts or gold trade. We adjust those figures for the purpose of calculating GDP. After adjusting for inflation, the real goods trade deficit increased by a smaller 8.2%, but that is still historically high. Gold for investment purposes had little impact on the trade deficit this month, as exports and imports essentially offset one another. 

Imports excluding gold increased $14.1 billion in August. High-tech goods needed for the AI data center buildout remained a key driver; semiconductors rose $2.4 billion, along with significant increases in telecommunications equipment and materials needed for energy infrastructure. There was also a fairly sizable jump in civilian aircraft and engines at about $1.3 billion alone.  

Bucking the trend, however: computers and computer accessories, which declined approximately $2 billion. We still have a lot of high-tech goods in inventories. 

Outside of capital goods, industrial supplies jumped on a $3.3 billion increase in imports of crude oil. Foods, feeds and beverages rose nearly $1 billion. Interestingly, the other goods category, which can include defense equipment, rose $1.3 billion. That is a sector we have been watching closely as it is starting to show momentum.  Automotive imports increased by a tepid $331 million, most in parts and accessories. 

Weakness in consumer goods was led by a $1.2 billion decline in pharmaceutical preparations (tariffs on pharmaceutical products took effect). Jewelry and cell phones also declined. Imports of services, which includes travel abroad, were essentially flat. 

Exports excluding gold increased just $2.1 billion in August. Exports of industrial supplies alone increased $4.1 billion for crude and fuel oil exports, along with some metals. Capital goods increased $1.3 billion on semiconductors and computers.  

A $2.2 billion drop in consumer goods offset gains in exports of energy and high-tech goods. Much of that fall occurred in pharmaceuticals. Automotive exports declined by $916 million; that loss was broad-based, while exports of foods declined $844 million on weaker soybean exports.  

The expansion in the deficit was driven by trade with Mexico and Asia outside of China. Mexico has become a major supplier of data centers along with Asia. In Asia, the primary increases came key hubs for high-tech goods such as Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam.